Retrospektive, letnik VIII, številka 2-5

Violence, Living Standards, and Inequality in Modern Times: Empirical Notes on Historical Progress

Tibor Rutar

DOI 10.64651/8-2-3 📋


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Povzetek članka

Steven Pinker in drugi t. i. »novi optimisti« trdijo, da je prehod iz predmodernih družb v kapitalistično modernost v zadnjih stoletjih prinesel velik in trajen zgodovinski napredek človeštva. Skeptiki ostajajo zadržani iz različnih teoretičnih in empiričnih razlogov. Kot poudarjajo, je treba na napredek gledati s kritično distanco, saj gre za pojem, ki je pogosto obremenjen s teleologijo, linearno predstavo razvoja, kulturno diskriminacijo in podobnim. Kritiki prav tako izpostavljajo, da so z empiričnega vidika sodobne kapitalistične družbe morda res bogatejše kot družbe v preteklosti, vendar pa je cena za razcvet bogastva ponovni porast nasilja in nebrzdana rast velikih družbenih neenakosti.

Članek predstavlja novejše longitudinalne podatke o tej problematiki in pokaže, da so najpogostejše kritike napredka večinoma zmotne. Čeprav so podatki o nasilju zapleteni in večdimenzionalni, je svet na splošno varnejši, kot je bil v predmodernih časih. Revnejši sloji so bili deležni pomembnih izboljšav življenjskega standarda v moderni dobi nasploh in še posebej v zadnjih nekaj desetletjih. Neenakost se je v prvi fazi neoliberalne globalizacije dejansko povečala, vendar se je nato ustalila in od okoli leta 2005 celo nekoliko zmanjšala. Prav tako je mogoče pokazati, da so ti trendi močno povezani s sodobnimi institucijami, kot so varne lastninske pravice, prosti trgi, demokratični politični sistemi in z močno socialno državo.

Članek sklene misel, da je mogoče v veliki meri soglašati z novimi optimisti, ki trdijo, da je modernost – in še posebej inkluzivne politične in gospodarske institucije kot ključni stebri modernosti – povezana z znatnim napredkom. To pa ne pomeni, da je napredek nujen ali neizbežen, saj se lahko ustavi, kadar liberalne institucije oslabijo ali kadar novi izzivi, kot je globalno segrevanje, presežejo naše prilagoditvene zmožnosti.

Viri in literatura

Datasets

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Kontakti avtorjev

Robin Dolar, mag. zgodovine, doktorski študent, mladi raziskovalec
Oddelek za zgodovino, Filozofska fakulteta, Univerza v Ljubljani

Tibor Rutar, doc. dr. sociologije
Oddelek za sociologijo, Filozofska fakulteta, Univerza v Mariboru

Augusto Petter, dr. zgodovine, ATER (začasni učitelj in raziskovalec)
Oddelek za zgodovino, Sciences Po Paris

Julija Šuligoj, dipl. francistka, mag. zgodovine, doktorska študentka
Oddelek za zgodovino, Filozofska fakulteta, Univerza v Ljubljani

Miroslav Vašík, mag. zgodovine, doktorski študent
Inštitut za zgodovino, Filozofska fakulteta, Karlova univerza

Sarah Lias Ceide, dr. zgodovine, raziskovalna sodelavka
Oddelek za zgodovino, Ruprecht-Karls-Universität Heidelberg

Abstract (Izvleček članka v angleščini)

This paper examines the recent debates surrounding the “New Optimists,” who argue that the last few centuries have witnessed unprecedented human progress, particularly in terms of rising living standards. Their critics, by contrast, emphasize the persistence of violence and the continued presence of high inequality in modern societies. Using long-run cross-national data on war deaths, homicide, income, and inequality, the paper finds that violence remains low and relatively contained, real after-tax incomes for the world’s bottom half have more than doubled, and inequality has stabilized or declined since around 2005. Statistical analyses further show that improvements in property rights, the rule of law, and free trade consistently precede sustained increases in GDP per capita. Progress is neither teleological nor inevitable, but it is measurable, broadly ongoing, and closely tied to open economic and political institutions.

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